Poking Holes in Oladipo with New Shot Defense Metrics?

Victor Oladipo may be the best wing defender in this draft, but he is not without weaknesses that NBA scouts/execs are noticing with the help of Vantage Stats. Crowding shooters and getting a hand up without fouling is vitally important to effective defense.  In fact, we have already shown that in certain situations it will drop FG% by a full 10%. Utilizing a few of Vantage’s innovative shot defense metrics, let’s take a look at 5 prospects that will be called upon to defend the wing in the NBA: Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, Shabazz Muhammad and Michael Carter-Williams.

Contest+
Vantage tracks 6 levels of shot defense, including block, alter, and contest (defined as when the defender is within 3 feet of shooter and his hand is up).  Contest+ is the percentage of shots defended where player blocks to possession, blocks to opponent’s possession, alters, or contests.

Points Allowed Per Shot & Fouls Per Shot
Number of points allowed per shot defended includes free throws resulting from fouls and thus penalizes a player with a high Fouls Per Shot number.
Shots Defended Per Chance
Number of shots defended per defensive chance measures defensive activity and therefore gives context to box score counting stats in which level of activity is key.
Overall FG Against %
FG% by opponents on all shots defended.

The Numbers

Here is what NBA teams utilizing Vantage are seeing in the numbers from Oladipo, McLemore, Porter, Muhammad, and Carter-Williams:








Analysis

The numbers seem to highlight some weaknesses for Oladipo in shot defense – his foul rate is high and he allowed shooters to go almost 39% against him.  As a result, his Points Allowed Per Shot was .897.  To provide further context, Tony Allen allows .894 Points Per Shot against NBA-level talent.  Giving up a higher number of points to college shooters does not bode well for a player touted as an NBA-ready defender. However, a mitigating factor is his high Shots Defended Per Chance number and his high help rate (only Otto Porter averaged more helps per chance).  Thus, a lot of his points allowed were not when guarding his primary target.

We can’t let Oladipo off the hook completely though.  Watching the video of his non-contested defense shows him relying on his active hands too much in help rather than playing with his feet, merely waving as guys go by, and he needs to temper his aggressiveness (especially when tired) so that he gives up fewer good looks. Oladipo exhibits the capacity to become a good NBA defender, but he is not there yet.

Keep checking in or follow us on Twitter as we continue to introduce new statistics in the following 10 categories:

1) Scoring
2) Facilitation
3) Rebounding
4) Screening
5) Turnovers and Fouling
6) Shot Defense
7) Disruptions
8) On-Ball/Screen Defense:

  • Keep in Front % (KIF%)
  • Close Out Points Allowed
  • Points Allowed Per Screen
  • Effective Screen Defense Rate

9) Help/Double Team Defense

  • Helps Per 100 Chances
  • Double Teams Per 100 Chances
  • Points Allowed Per Help/Double Team
  • Effective Help/Double Team Rate

10) Movement and Involvement

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